Volatility

Each line is the standard deviation of daily log returns over a rolling window, in percent per day. The 30-day line reacts fast; the 180-day line shows the regime.

Volatility clusters: calm periods and violent periods each persist. Historically, multi-month volatility compression (all three lines low and converging) has preceded large directional moves — the coiled-spring pattern — while volatility peaks coincide with capitulations and blow-off tops. The long-term trend is also visibly downward as the asset matures.