GDP & Debt-to-GDP

Output and the leverage carried against it. Debt-to-GDP crossing 100% and staying there post-2020 is the fiscal backdrop for the "debasement trade" — the argument that deficits eventually force accommodative policy regardless of inflation.

This is the slowest-moving chart on the site and the one underpinning the longest-horizon Bitcoin thesis: fixed-supply assets as insurance against fiscal dominance. Quarterly data; decades matter here, not months.