ROI After Cycle Bottom

Each line starts at 1× on a bear-market bottom (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022) and shows the recovery multiple from that low on a days-since axis (log scale, since early cycles reached 100×+). Bottoms are only knowable in hindsight, so the anchor dates are fixed historical lows, not predictions.

The recoveries rhyme: roughly two years of choppy appreciation, then a steep leg. Overlaying the current cycle on the old ones shows whether the market is running hot or cold against its own precedent — and the shrinking peak multiples echo the same diminishing-returns story as the halving chart.