Bank Loans

Credit creation is the economy's private money supply — most money is born as bank loans. Expanding credit is expansionary regardless of what the Fed does; contracting credit (rare — 2009, briefly 2023) is the true crunch signal.

Composition matters: business lending leads investment cycles, consumer credit tracks household stress (watch it accelerate late-cycle as savings run out), and real-estate lending is the slow giant that broke in 2008.