Personal Income & Saving Rate

Real income ex-transfers is the organic earning power of households — one of the four official recession-dating indicators. The saving rate shows what's left after spending: its 2020 spike to 30%+ (stimulus with nowhere to go) was the retail wave that flooded into markets, crypto included.

A saving rate scraping historic lows alongside flat real income is the squeezed-consumer signature — historically late-cycle, and part of why discretionary risk appetite (the fuel of alt seasons) has been thin this cycle.