SMA Cycle-Top Breakout

Each marker flags the day the 20-week SMA — not price itself, but its smoothed trend — climbed above the previous cycle's peak close. Price crosses old highs many times amid volatility; the slow average doing it is a stronger statement that the market has durably outgrown the last cycle.

Historically these breakouts have landed early in the steep phase of bull markets (2013, 2017, 2021), making this one of the simpler regime-confirmation signals in the cycle toolkit.