NUPL

NUPL is (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap: the fraction of Bitcoin's value that exists as paper profit. At 0.75, three quarters of the market cap is unrealized gain (historic euphoria); below 0, the market in aggregate holds at a loss (historic capitulation).

The classic band labels — belief above 0.5, optimism 0.25–0.5, hope/fear around 0–0.25, capitulation below 0 — map cleanly onto past cycles. NUPL is algebraically 1 − 1/MVRV, so the two charts always agree; NUPL just reads more intuitively as "percent of the market that is profit."