Risk Metric
0–1 risk score: price's percentile position inside the quantile regression fan. v2.
Understanding this chart
The risk metric compresses "how stretched is price right now?" into a single number between 0 and 1. Version 2 reads it directly off the quantile regression fan: if price sits on the fan's median curve, risk is 0.5; on the 95th-percentile curve, 0.95. It is the statistical answer to "how expensive is today relative to Bitcoin's entire trend history?"
How to use it: low readings (green, below 0.2) have historically coincided with bear-market bottoms and accumulation zones; high readings (red, above 0.8) with euphoric tops where risk-reward favors taking profit. Backtested against known reference points, v2 scores the 2013/2017/2021 tops at 0.98–0.99 and the 2022 bottom at 0.01. It is a slow valuation signal, not a trade timer.
Caveats: this is our own model — same family of methods ITC describes (asymmetric quantile regression), but independently fitted. The fan is refit on the full history each day, so all readings shift slightly as new data arrives; extremes are meaningful, mid-range is noise.