Cycles Deviation

The line is the current cycle's return (from the 2022 bottom) minus the average return of the three prior cycles at the same day-count. Above zero: running hotter than the historical average; below: colder.

It compresses the whole overlay-the-cycles exercise into one series. Persistent negative deviation is the quantitative form of the "lengthening/weakening cycles" argument; a crossover back above zero would mean the current cycle started outperforming its precedent.