ROI After Halving

Each line starts at 1× on a halving day (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) and tracks the multiple of that day's price forward, on a shared days-since axis with a logarithmic y-axis — without the log scale, 2012's 90× would flatten every later cycle into invisibility. This is the chart behind the entire halving-cycle thesis: historically, the 12–18 months after each halving contained the bulk of the cycle's gains.

Note the shrinking amplitude — each successive halving cycle has delivered a smaller multiple, consistent with diminishing returns as market cap grows. Comparing the current halving line against its predecessors at the same day-count is the cleanest "where are we in the cycle" view this framework offers.