Short Term Bubble Risk

Where the main risk metric measures extension from a multi-year fair value, this one measures extension from the 20-week SMA — the same baseline as the Bull Market Support Band — percentile-ranked the same way. It captures short-term froth rather than cycle-scale valuation.

The two risks disagree in useful ways: mid-bull, cycle risk can be moderate while short-term bubble risk pins near 1.0 after a vertical few weeks — historically a local-top warning even when the larger trend had further to run.