Unemployment & Payrolls

The Fed's second mandate. Unemployment is a stair-stepper: it falls slowly for years and spikes fast in recessions — the spikes align with every recession since 1948.

For markets the rule of thumb inverts intuition: deteriorating employment historically forces easing (good for liquidity-sensitive assets, eventually), while red-hot labor markets sustain tight policy. The Sahm rule — a 0.5pt rise in unemployment off its low — is the classic recession trigger visible here.