Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue stress: the USD value of newly issued coins today versus its one-year average. High values mean mining is extraordinarily profitable (historically at cycle tops); low values mean miners earn far below trend (capitulation zones, where weak miners shut off).

Sub-0.5 readings marked the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms; readings above ~4 flagged tops. Halvings mechanically cut the numerator in half, which is why each halving briefly craters the multiple — the market has historically re-rated price upward over the following year, restoring it.